Moscow and Beijing's shadow war: How Russia and China are keeping Iran lethal

"The intelligence indicates Iran may be using the ceasefire as an opportunity to replenish weapons systems with the help of key foreign partners, with indications that Beijing is working to route the shipments through third countries to mask their true origin. The MANPADs in question are shoulder-fired, infrared-guided missiles - systems that require little infrastructure, minimal operator training, and can be concealed inside civilian vehicles, urban terrain, or dispersed military positions."

"On April 3, an American Strike Eagle was shot down over Iran by a shoulder-fired heat-seeking missile - a fact Trump later confirmed publicly, saying the Iranians "got lucky." Whether that system was Chinese-manufactured remains unconfirmed; Iran also produces its own MANPAD series, reverse-engineered copies of Chinese QW-series designs, meaning the Chinese origin of any given shoulder-fired missile over Iranian airspace may never be definitively established."

"What is confirmed is that Tehran noticed what worked, and Beijing appears to be resupplying accordingly. "The sending of MANPADs to Iran would represent an escalation in Chinese assistance, moving beyond traditionally supplying spare parts to Iran's missile and drone program to the transfer of actual complete weapons systems," Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran, tells The Cipher Brief."

"Neither Russia nor China fired a shot against American forces. They didn't need to. For years, Moscow and Beijing have quietly supplied Tehran with the intelligence, technology, and weapons components needed to keep Iran capable of threatening United States forces - before wars start. At the same time, they're being fought, and during the ceasefires in between. The pause in fighting did not stop that effort. It created cover for the next round."

Intelligence indicates Iran may use ceasefires to replenish weapons systems with help from foreign partners, including efforts attributed to Beijing to route shipments through third countries to obscure their origin. The weapons in question are shoulder-fired, infrared-guided MANPADs that require little infrastructure, minimal operator training, and can be concealed in civilian vehicles, urban terrain, or dispersed positions. An American Strike Eagle was shot down over Iran by a heat-seeking shoulder-fired missile, though whether it was Chinese-manufactured is unconfirmed because Iran also produces and reverse-engineers similar systems. Tehran appears to have noticed what worked, and Beijing appears to be resupplying accordingly. The transfer would represent escalation from spare parts and components to complete weapons systems.

Read at The Cipher Brief