Following Israel's assault on Iranian targets, Hezbollah issued a statement condemning the attack but refrained from promising retaliation. This marks a significant shift, as historically, Iran has retaliated directly from its territory. Analysts like Heiko Wimmen and Ronnie Chatah suggest Hezbollah's inaction may stem from its weakened state after recent conflicts and changing regional rules of engagement. The attack occurred just before critical US-Iran nuclear negotiations, underscoring the precarious nature of Middle Eastern geopolitics, complicated further by Iran's insistence on its nuclear enrichment rights.
"The previous rule was that when Iran is attacked on its territory, it retaliates from its territory," Heiko Wimmen noted, but he cautioned that these 'rulebooks have changed.'
Ronnie Chatah echoed that while Hezbollah has suffered losses, it remains a reflection of Iran's security concerns, despite its current limitations in retaliatory capabilities.
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