"On Saturday, while many Americans were waking up to news of US and Israeli strikes on Iran, some were betting money on what would happen next - and expressing confusion and anger over what was happening on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. The market-surveillance software company Bubblemaps said Saturday morning it had identified several new cryptocurrency wallets connected to Polymarket that collectively made over $1.2 million related to strikes on Iran."
"On Polymarket, at least $200 million was staked on four wagers related to US strikes on Iran, regime change, or Khamenei's death. Kalshi, which is more regulated and barred by US law from offering markets related to war and assassination, recorded almost $55 million in contracts related to whether or not Khamenei would be 'out' in the next several months before activity in those markets was halted."
"Bubblemaps identified several new cryptocurrency wallets connected to Polymarket that collectively made over $1.2 million related to strikes on Iran. Most of these wallets were funded in the last 24 hours and specifically bet for February 28, buying 'yes' hours before the strike occurred."
Following US and Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend, prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket experienced massive betting activity totaling at least $255 million on outcomes including strikes, regime change, and Khamenei's death. Bubblemaps identified suspicious cryptocurrency wallets making $1.2 million in coordinated bets hours before strikes occurred, raising insider trading concerns. Kalshi, more heavily regulated and legally barred from offering assassination markets, recorded $55 million in contracts on Khamenei's status before halting activity. Polymarket hosted over $200 million in Iran-related wagers. The activity sparked outrage over market fairness, potential manipulation, and the ethics of profiting from geopolitical violence and death.
Read at Business Insider
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