Narendra Modi will visit China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit as US-India relations deteriorate following Washington's decision to double tariffs on Indian exports to 50% over continued purchases of Russian oil. The tariffs disrupt years of deepening cooperation built on technology and shared concerns about China, forcing India to diversify its trade partners and eroding Indian trust in the US. The timing enhances China's regional optics as India-China relations stabilise. Russia may seek to reaffirm ties with India. The duties affect roughly $60.2bn of Indian exports, hitting labour-intensive sectors from textiles to jewellery.
Modi's visit to Tianjin for a regional security summit comes days after the US doubled tariffs on Indian exports to 50%, citing New Delhi's refusal to stop buying Russian oil. The row has upended years of deepening cooperation between India and the US, built on technology and a shared determination to counter Beijing's global ambitions. It has also forced India to aggressively look elsewhere to diversify its trade.
Indian trust in the US is shattered, South Asia analyst Michael Kugelman said. I'm not sure whether US officials fully realise how much trust they have squandered in such a short time. For China, the two-day Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit that starts on Sunday could not be better timed. Modi will be in China at a moment when India-China relations are stabilising and India-US relations have gone south. It is a powerful optic, Kugelman said.
No doubt there are some in China who are revelling in the trade tensions between India and the US, said Manoj Kewalramani, head of Indo-Pacific studies at the Takshashila Institution in Bengaluru. Putin would want to capitalise on the moment by reasserting Russia's close relationship with India, Kugelman said, adding that it would be a great moment for everyone to stick out their tongues at Washington.
Washington has pointed to India's continuing purchases of Russian crude oil and defence hardware as the reason for the tariff hike, arguing that Delhi is helping fund Moscow's war on Ukraine. The economic blow is immense. The US is India's biggest export market at $86.5bn a year, and two-thirds of that about $60.2bn in goods is now subject to the new duties, hitting labour-intensive sectors from textiles to jewellery.
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