How the war in Iran could 'guarantee' a global recession | Fortune
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How the war in Iran could 'guarantee' a global recession | Fortune
"On normal days, around 20 million barrels of oil, or approximately 20% of the world's liquid petroleum, passes through the strait, which is less than 30 miles across at its narrowest point. In a moment of regional instability, the seafaring passageway can quickly turn into a strategic chokepoint, and its effects are already rippling out on a global scale."
"Renewed conflict in Iran, and the regime's reprisal attacks across the Middle East, has thrust the strait back to the center of recession fears, as analysts warn that even a partial or prolonged disruption of petroleum supply could shock the world economy into contraction."
"A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a guaranteed global recession, according to Bob McNally, founder of consultancy group Rapidan Energy and a former energy advisor to George W. Bush's White House."
Recent missile attacks by U.S. and Israeli forces on Iran have escalated into maritime warfare, with tankers targeted in waters near Oman and the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic waterway, less than 30 miles wide at its narrowest point, handles approximately 20 million barrels of oil daily—roughly 20% of global liquid petroleum supply. The strait also transports one-fifth of globally-traded liquefied natural gas. Experts warn that even partial or prolonged disruption of petroleum flow through this critical chokepoint could trigger global economic contraction. Energy analysts caution that a sustained closure would guarantee worldwide recession, with triple-digit crude oil prices representing only the beginning of potential economic consequences.
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