"Crude oil markets opened the week on a firmer footing this Monday, recovering from last week's losses. Geopolitical developments reinforced risks on the market even as the 2026 surplus narrative keeps the upside limited. Traders could focus on geopolitical factors as US officials said Washington intercepted an oil tanker in international waters off the Venezuelan coast over the weekend, with another vessel being pursued under a seizure order tied to sanctions evasion."
"The developments raise near-term supply uncertainty by increasing the operational risk for oil cargoes. At the same time, tensions in Eastern Europe remain elevated, adding to insurance and shipping risk for crude tankers. Peace talks remain without any real progress; traders could remain attentive to any impact on supply levels. Any credible progress could erode risk premia and add barrels back to the market, while new sanctions could pressure Russian exports."
"However, the IEA 2026 surplus forecast could limit the market's upside potential and encourage traders to sell rallies."
Crude oil markets opened the week firmer, recovering from last week's losses. US interception of an oil tanker off Venezuela and pursuit of another vessel for alleged sanctions evasion raised near-term supply uncertainty by increasing operational risk for oil cargoes. Elevated tensions in Eastern Europe added insurance and shipping risks for crude tankers. Peace talks showed no progress, maintaining supply concerns. Credible peace progress could remove risk premia and return barrels to the market, while new sanctions could pressure Russian exports. The IEA's 2026 surplus forecast constrained upside potential and encouraged selling on rallies.
Read at London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com
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