"Global and domestic conditions are ripe for the weaponisation of violence for electoral aims. It is up to Kenyans to stop it. As Kenya prepares for its next general election, due in less than 20 months' time, 2026 will prove to be a critical year. With local and global restraints on political violence being hollowed out at the very time when trust in the credibility of the election system is at an all-time low, serious trouble beckons unless urgent steps are taken."
"Violence in Kenyan elections is rarely the product of that perennial bogeyman, tribalism. It is almost exclusively a state-generated phenomenon that requires a particular alignment of circumstances. Two matter above all else: first, whether the election itself is credible; second, whether the incumbent is running for re-election. Since the reintroduction of multiparty politics in 1991, Kenya has had seven competitive presidential elections."
Global and domestic conditions are creating opportunities for the weaponisation of violence for electoral aims in Kenya. Local and international restraints on political violence are weakening while public trust in electoral credibility is low. Electoral violence in Kenya is primarily state-generated and occurs when elections lack credibility and when an incumbent seeks re-election. Historical patterns show major violence coincided with unpopular incumbents on the ballot. Reforms since 2007, including the 2010 constitution and an independent judiciary, have strengthened dispute resolution. Transparency improvements in 2022 reduced electoral tensions. Despite progress, those gains are at risk with an incumbent running for re-election.
Read at www.aljazeera.com
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