"It's been a challenging period for domestic winemakers based in the United States. Some of that can be chalked up to changing tastes, with alcoholic beverages in general losing some ground, including when it comes to restaurants pairing beverages with food. There are also some uniquely environmental issues at play, including the effects of wildfires on wines made in the Pacific Northwest."
"For more than a quarter of a century, Silicon Valley Bank has provided an annual forecast of the domestic wine industry, and 2026 is no exception. This year's State of the U.S. Wine Industry report highlights an industry navigating a turbulent period, albeit one that appears to be stabilizing. (It also includes a rundown of what last year's report did and did not predict, which is a welcome touch.)"
"One concerning detail that emerged from the report is the continuing problem of oversupply. A total of 59% of survey respondents said that their supply of wine was "well over" or "moderately in excess" of what they would require based on demand. The industry isn't out of the proverbial woods yet, but the report does predict "a shift back to modest growth" in consumer spending on wine after 2027-28."
Domestic winemakers are experiencing turbulence driven by shifting consumer tastes, declining alcoholic beverage demand, changes in restaurant beverage pairing, and environmental impacts such as wildfires in the Pacific Northwest. Market signals are mixed: stabilization is emerging but will include continued pain and anticipated producer shutdowns in 2026. Oversupply is a major issue, with 59% of producers reporting inventories well or moderately in excess of demand. Coverage of closures could obscure improvements among upper-quartile producers and a slowing rate of decline. Consumer spending on wine is projected to return to modest growth after 2027–28.
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