"[Prediction markets are] pretty much already close to a $100 billion a year asset class. It's pretty easy to imagine it 10x from here. We haven't even started. It's been a year. I think a very large number of people care, much larger than traditional markets, and I think retail as a pie has just been growing in the U.S. and I think it's going to keep growing-it's growing in the stock market, it's growing outside the stock market."
"The long term vision is to financialize everything and create a tradable asset out of any difference of opinion. And I think if you do build a general purpose exchange that can resolve differences of opinions on anything the [total addressable market] is quite massive, quite a bit bigger than the current TAM of the stock market. Putting aside the retail trading and the institutional trading product there's sort of this separate product"
Kalshi secured $1 billion in funding at an $11 billion valuation as investors back expansion of prediction-market betting. The business model treats differences of opinion as tradable assets and aims to financialize many real-world outcomes. Current estimates place prediction markets near a $100 billion yearly asset class with potential to grow tenfold. Retail participation in markets is expanding, and a general-purpose exchange could address information noise by aggregating collective judgment. The vision includes converting diverse signals, including social-media disputes, into market-resolved outcomes and separate products for retail and institutional users.
Read at Kotaku
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