"I learned the cost of waiting for certainty early in my investing career. A friend introduced me to a micro trading app. There was no revenue and no meaningful user base, and the valuation seemed disconnected from the company's current standing. I wanted more proof. I wanted stronger signals and cleaner data. I convinced myself that a better picture was coming if I held off."
"That decision stayed with me. It showed how expensive hesitation can be and how misleading the idea of "complete clarity" really is. Early-stage work rarely offers perfect information. The moment you want the most certainty is usually the moment you have the least. Markets move, customers shift and the information you wait for often doesn't show up until long after the opportunity has passed."
"The name borrows from basic statistics, but the rule itself is simple. When you feel roughly 70% confident in a direction, it is time to act. Not with bravado, and not with unquestioning optimism. With grounded conviction that acknowledges what you know, what you believe, and what remains uncertain. This mindset is effective because it acknowledges the realities of early-stage work. Very few decisions come with a complete data set."
Waiting for certainty in early-stage investing often forfeits opportunities, as when a micro trading app later became Robinhood after being passed over. Early-stage ventures usually lack revenue, a meaningful user base, and clean signals, so perfect clarity rarely exists. Markets and customers change, and the information leaders hope to wait for often arrives too late. Leaders who delay reduce progress, while high-growth companies are led by people who let clarity form through action. One Sigma Confidence prescribes acting when approximately 70% confident, combining grounded conviction with acknowledgement of remaining uncertainty. Over-analysis masquerades as discipline and frequently reflects fear.
Read at Entrepreneur
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