What If 'America First' Appears to Work?

"In his second term, Donald Trump has crafted a foreign policy that is more radical than that of his first but also more politically viable. The stabilizing influence of powerful Cabinet members (the so-called axis of adults) is a thing of the past. In its place stands an unsettling but coherent vision that exploits U.S. allies for economic gain and downplays strategic competition with U.S. rivals in favor of moneymaking deals."

"Democrats and conservative internationalists warn of long-term costs-above all to American alliances and competitiveness with China-but the short-term consequences have so far been muted, and that may be the most consequential revelation of all. Calamity could still arrive before November 2028. In that case, Democrats would have a relatively easy time countering the "America First" worldview. But if no bill has yet come due by the next election, Trump's opponents will need new arguments to convince Americans that might does not make right."

"He has long claimed that America's allies are ripping Washington off and should pay for U.S. security commitments. He has also long objected to free-trade agreements and wanted Washington to use tariffs to set more favorable terms. He has consistently expressed admiration for strongmen. He once praised the Chinese Communist Party for cracking down on protesters in Tiananmen Square and dismissed Mikhail Gorbachev as weak for not behaving similarly."

The second-term presidency advances a more radical but politically viable foreign policy that replaces traditional Cabinet constraints with a transactional worldview. U.S. allies are leveraged for economic concessions while strategic competition with rivals is deprioritized in favor of moneymaking deals. Warnings from Democrats and conservative internationalists stress long-term costs to alliances and competitiveness with China, yet immediate fallout has been muted. The durability of nationalist, protectionist policies without immediate calamity poses political risks for opponents. Longstanding presidential beliefs include skepticism of allies, opposition to free-trade agreements, use of tariffs, and admiration for strongmen.

Read at The Atlantic