"Last Friday, an apparent new trader on Polymarket.com seemed to invest $30,000 on the market: Maduro out by January 31, 2026?. After Maduro's capture was announced on Saturday morning, that same investor seemed to have made profits of $436,759.61. That windfall as well as corresponding losses to punters on the other side of the bet was realised in a matter of hours."
"Data on the same market published on the Polymarket site suggests that, at 3pm (GMT) on 2 January, there was a 5.5% implied chance of Maduro no longer being the president of Venezuela by the end of the month. The chance had risen to 11% by 6am on 3 January, 28.5% at 6.30am and 56.5% by 7.30am. By 9.30am the market was trading at almost 99%."
"Meanwhile, a related Polymarket wager Maduro in US custody by January 31? also seems to have had attracted two prescient trades, matched at prices of 0.22 and 0.11 (implying a 22% and 11% chance) early on Saturday before jumping to above 0.99. Prediction markets have started to gain popularity in the US, with the volume of bets growing from under $100m in early 2024 to over $13bn, according to a report from the crypto firms Dune and Keyrock."
Gamblers used prediction markets to bet on the capture and custody status of Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, and realized large, rapid profits and losses when market prices shifted sharply. A new Polymarket trader reportedly invested $30,000 on "Maduro out by January 31, 2026?" and saw profits of $436,759.61 after a capture announcement. Polymarket pricing moved from a 5.5% implied chance at 3pm (GMT) on January 2 to nearly 99% by 9.30am on January 3. A related "Maduro in US custody by January 31?" market moved from trades priced at 0.22 and 0.11 to above 0.99. Prediction-market betting volume rose from under $100m in early 2024 to over $13bn.
Read at www.theguardian.com
Unable to calculate read time
Collection
[
|
...
]