U.S. political polarization started a lot earlier than you might expect

"Researchers at the University of Cambridge's Political Psychology Lab tracked shifts in Americans' views across nearly four decades and found that divisions were broadly stable through the 1990s and early 2000s, before rising steadily from 2008 onward. Using more than 35,000 responses from the American National Election Studies between 1988 and 2024, they estimate that issue polarization has increased 64% since the late 1980s, with almost all of that change occurring after 2008."

"The research uses a machine-learning approach to move beyond party labels and better understand what actually drives Americans' political views. Instead of relying on whether respondents identify as Republican or Democrat, the team grouped people based on patterns in what they believe across a range of issues, from abortion and "traditional family values" to race, inequality, and health insurance. That distinction matters because in many countries politically opposite parties do not exist,"

"It points to 2008 as the "major turning point," a year that also included the financial crisis, Barack Obama's election, and the widespread adoption of the iPhone-era internet. "Our ability to nail down when it starts is slightly divided by the fact that we only have data points every four years," Young says. Still, "we know that this increase starts from our 2008 data point," he adds. "That's our best guess at the starting point.""

More than 35,000 responses from the American National Election Studies between 1988 and 2024 were used to track Americans' views across nearly four decades. Divisions were broadly stable through the 1990s and early 2000s, then rose steadily from 2008 onward. Issue polarization increased 64% since the late 1980s, with almost all of that change occurring after 2008. A machine-learning approach grouped people by consistent patterns of beliefs across issues—abortion, "traditional family values", race, inequality, and health insurance—rather than by party identification. 2008 is identified as a major turning point coinciding with the financial crisis, Barack Obama's election, and the widespread adoption of the iPhone-era internet.

Read at Fast Company