"On NBC's Meet the Press with Kristen Welker on Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence that the justices would side with the Trump administration, adding that there "are numerous other avenues that we can take" even if they don't. But he acknowledged that if the top court goes against the administration, the U.S. "would have to give a refund on about half the tariffs, which would be terrible for the Treasury.""
"Late last month, a federal appeals court upheld an earlier ruling by the Court of International Trade that found the tariffs' legal basis under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) wasn't valid. The 7-4 decision won't take effect until Oct. 14 to give the administration time to appeal to the Supreme Court. It doesn't affect sectoral tariffs, such as those on autos, aluminum and steel, that were imposed under a separate legal basis."
The federal government would need to return roughly half of the revenue collected from certain reciprocal tariffs if the Supreme Court upholds a ruling that those duties lack legal basis. A federal appeals court found the IEEPA justification invalid and issued a 7-4 decision that is stayed until Oct. 14 to allow a Supreme Court appeal. Sectoral tariffs imposed under separate authority, such as on autos, aluminum and steel, remain unaffected. So far this year, the U.S. has collected $158 billion in tariff revenue. The full tariff program was expected to generate $300–$400 billion annually and would be critical to deficit and credit outlooks.
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