Analysts project a possible lower non-farm payroll number due to the effects of President Trump's tariff policies. Investors are closely watching the U.S. federal government’s official jobs number for signs of economic impact. Despite mixed opinions, many economists believe the tariffs could negatively impact the economy as they can increase import prices and shift supply chains to more expensive U.S. sources. However, inflation and unemployment rates remain stable, while businesses have been previously over-ordering ahead of tariffs, potentially inflating early economic activity. ADP reports job reductions that contradict the improved outlook.
ADP's forecasting track record is dire. ADP underestimated the initial estimate of private payrolls by just over 100K in both April and May, and the size of these misses is far from unusual.
Economists argue that President Trump's tariff policy will hurt the economy by raising the price of imports and moving some supply chains to the U.S., where costs are higher.
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