"The U.S. economy is bracing for a substantial fiscal injection this tax season, with Bank of America Research analysts projecting a massive surge in tax refunds driven by the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA). While the legislation is poised to give the economy a $65 billion shot in the arm compared to last year, analysts suggest the benefits will be unevenly distributed, potentially exacerbating the nation's "K-shaped" economic divide."
"According to BofA Global Research, tax refunds in 2026 are expected to be approximately $65 billion higher than in 2025—an 18% year-over-year increase. The bank estimates the total consumer stimulus from the OBBBA will range from $135 billion to $140 billion. However, the structure of these tax breaks, particularly changes to the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction caps, suggests that middle- and higher-income households will reap most of the benefits."
Bank of America Global Research projects tax refunds in 2026 will be about $65 billion higher than in 2025, an 18% year-over-year increase. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act will produce roughly $135–$140 billion in total consumer stimulus. Changes such as raising the State and Local Tax deduction cap will concentrate benefits among middle- and higher-income households. Deductions for tip and overtime income will aid some service workers but provide smaller overall stimulus. Spending data show higher-income households increased spending 2.4% while lower-income households grew spending only 0.4%, reinforcing a widening K-shaped economic dynamic.
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