The Nightmare Redistricting Scenario for Democrats
Briefly

Mid-decade redistricting in Texas has produced maps projected to add three to five Republican seats, an uncommon move outside the decennial cycle. Trump is urging other red states to adopt similar plans, with Indiana and Missouri each potentially adding one seat and Florida possibly adding three. California has enacted temporary maps that could add three to five Republican seats, subject to voter approval, while many Democratic states have anti-gerrymandering measures that limit similar actions. Democrats need only a few flips to regain the House but face increased risk if Republicans successfully expand favorable maps.
It's highly unusual for states to redraw their Congressional maps mid-decade, rather than after the decennial census. But when President Trump all but ordered Texas to maximize Republicans' advantage in the 2026 midterms, state Republicans complied. Texas's new maps, passed over the vociferous objections of Democrats - who fled the state for two weeks in protest - are thought to guarantee up to five more seats for Republicans in the race for the House.
Now Trump is pressuring Indiana, Missouri, and more red states to follow Texas's lead, though it's unclear how successful he'll be. California Governor Gavin Newsom has struck back for Democrats, pushing (temporary) new maps through the state legislature, overturning a state commission tasked with drawing fair maps. (The proposal must be approved by voters in November.) Beyond California, though, the party has fewer options to work with than Republicans, thanks to a combination of state laws - many Democratic states have instituted anti-gerrymandering measures
Read at Intelligencer
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