"Prediction markets produce something that can be covered like polls, except on an even wider range of subjects and with the seductive possibility of active, profitable participation. More bluntly, for our purposes, they produce a lot of rapidly changing numbers, which is perhaps the minimum viable definition of news: Of the early media partnerships with these things, the cable news deals make the most sense, or are at least the easiest to visualize."
"The maximalist pitch, as recently made by one of Kalshi's founders, is to "financialize everything and create a tradable asset out of any difference in opinion." You don't want to place too much stock in self-consciously shocking claims by young founders riding up a growth curve - that's part of the job - but for a while, at least, they really do have a lot of momentum, and political media is unusually vulnerable to prediction markets' appeal."
Gambling's takeover of sports media occurred in about a decade, and prediction markets are driving a similar, faster change in political coverage. Prediction markets reveal a new, useful form of information and promise broad financialization of opinions into tradable assets. They generate rapidly changing numerical signals that function like polls across many subjects and invite active, profitable participation. Media outlets, especially cable news and business channels, can integrate these numbers into broadcasts as on-screen ratios and anchors for pundit debate. Political media appears particularly vulnerable to this blend of speculation, participation, and attention-driven metrics.
Read at Nieman Lab
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