The National Hurricane Center is adapting its hurricane forecasts this year by updating the iconic forecast cone and enhancing messaging about the storm's dangers. These changes, as explained by NHC director Michael Brennan, stem from annual reviews aimed at improving the public's understanding of complex hurricane data. The adjustments come against a backdrop of budget cuts to weather agencies and predictions for an active hurricane season. The NHC plans to illustrate watches and warnings over land in the forecast cone, which reflects historical forecasting accuracy metrics.
A lot of it just comes from explaining complicated information. And hurricanes are complex events.
It's based on the previous five years of track forecast error. So because our track errors over the very long term continually get better...
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