"State of play: If the leadership triumvirate of chair Jerome Powell, vice-chair Philip Jefferson, and New York Fed President John Williams decide a rate cut is in order, they will surely be joined by the three Trump-appointed governors on the committee (Michelle Bowman, Stephen Miran, and Christopher Waller). But that only gets them to six votes of the 12 voting members of the FOMC. They need a seventh for a majority. Where, oh where, will the seventh vote come from?"
"Zoom in: All four presidents of non-New York reserve banks who have a vote at this meeting (Chicago's Austan Goolsbee, Boston's Susan Collins, St. Louis' Alberto Musalem and Kansas City's Jeff Schmid) have expressed reservations about a rate cut. That's no guarantee they'll all dissent, of course (Goolsbee was noncommittal Thursday, saying "I want to hear what my colleagues have to say"). But it is a live possibility. In that scenario, there are two Biden-appointed governors Powell could turn to to get his majority."
Federal Open Market Committee voting could produce a narrow split if Powell, Jefferson, and Williams favor a rate cut and are joined by the three Trump-appointed governors, totaling six votes. Four regional presidents with votes have expressed reservations, potentially withholding the decisive support. That scenario leaves two Biden-appointed governors as pivotal options: Michael Barr, who is concerned about inflation and may oppose a cut, and Lisa Cook, who prioritizes labor-market health and has not publicly revealed her stance. The Supreme Court will hear a case on whether President Trump can remove Cook on Jan. 21.
Read at Axios
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