"As the 2026 midterm elections approach, the perceptive and pocketbook-focused American voter is concerned about one thing above all: the cost of living. According to a new report from Goldman Sachs chief U.S. political economist Alec Phillips, this economic frustration has placed President Trump's aggressive tariff regime in the political and legal crossfire, creating a scenario where trade barriers are likely to come down rather than go up in the coming months."
"Whether this occurs is far from certain, as the Trump administration has fiercely defended the tariff regime, even if they keep getting smaller and lower. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently admitted to New York Times Dealbook editor Andrew Ross Sorkin that they are a " shrinking ice cube." Bessent has said he opposed the tariffs at the beginning of 2025, changing his mind when he saw how many other countries were willing to come to the table."
Cost of living is the top voter concern, cited by 29% now versus 25% before the 2024 presidential election. Goldman Sachs economist Alec Phillips says economic frustration has placed President Trump's tariff regime in political crossfire, increasing the likelihood that trade barriers will come down. Prediction market data from Kalshi show a consensus that Democrats are much more likely to win the House majority next year. The Trump administration defends the tariffs, though Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called them a " shrinking ice cube" and said he initially opposed them in early 2025 before changing his view after other countries signaled willingness to negotiate. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is urging Democrats to emphasize affordability.
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