"Gambling has taken over the country. But it's not just sports betting that's emptying wallets. Now, the rise of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi to bet on almost any conceivable outcome, ranging from presidential elections to military interventions to celebrity dramas to the return of our lord and savior Jesus Christ. The nature of the wagers open up whole new avenues of insider trading and other dishonest practices."
"Take, for example, the Polymarket bet on the number of tweets Elon Musk will make between February 6 and February 13, which currently has nearly $15 million worth of bets placed. What's stopping Musk from seeing this and telling a friend how much he's going to tweet? The answer: practically nothing - hence the numerous scandals that have already emerged over this clear vulnerability."
Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi enable bets on almost any conceivable outcome, from elections and military actions to celebrity events and religious prophecies. Large wagers create opportunities for insider trading and dishonest practices, exemplified by a Polymarket bet on Elon Musk's tweets that attracted nearly $15 million and could be influenced by private information. These platforms use a simple binary format and peer-to-peer framing to attract young, inexperienced bettors, who increasingly view participation as investment rather than gambling. Partnerships with mainstream news organizations add apparent credibility. The markets' structure and vulnerabilities have already produced scandals and raise regulatory and ethical concerns.
Read at Futurism
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