Only a fraction of House seats are competitive. Redistricting is driving that lower

"Fewer congressional contests are expected to be competitive this fall, compared with past election cycles, and experts say the extraordinary mid-decade redistricting efforts initiated by President Trump are largely to blame. Fewer competitive seats means the overwhelming majority more than 90% of congressional races will pretty much be decided during primary elections, which see far fewer voters participate than general elections."

""Right now, we only rate 18 out of 435 races as toss ups, which means that less than 5% of Americans will truly be deciding who's in control of the House," David Wasserman, senior elections analyst for the Cook Political Report, told NPR. This disparity in the voting power of Americans in congressional races has been a worsening problem for several election cycles."

"Unite America Institute, which tracks what it refers to as the "primary problem" and advocates for election reforms, calculated that in 2024, just 7% voters elected 87% of U.S. House races. Voters have self-sorted themselves geographically, and technology in recent years has allowed lawmakers to more effectively carve up congressional districts that give one party an advantage over another. Nick Troiano, executive director of Unite America, said the mid-decade redistricting prompted by Trump last year has further reduced the number of competitive seats."

Mid-decade redistricting initiated by President Trump has sharply reduced the number of competitive congressional contests. More than 90% of House races are effectively decided in primary elections, where turnout is much lower than in general elections. Only 18 of 435 races are rated toss-ups, meaning fewer than 5% of Americans will decide control of the House in general-election contests. In 2024, 7% of voters selected winners in 87% of U.S. House races. Geographic self-sorting and advanced mapping technology have enabled more effective partisan district carving, leaving 32 states without a competitive congressional race and reducing accountability.

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