"Earlier this month, President Trump made an official promise of a "dividend" payable to all Americans. Posting on Truth Social, the social media platform he owns, the president wrote that tariff opponents were "fools" and added: "record investment in the USA, plants and factories going up all over the place." He added: "A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.""
"Since then, excitement around the project has dimmed. According to speculators betting on the odds market site Kalshi, there's now just a 2% chance that Americans will receive such a check anytime soon. These odds have dropped considerably from the week following Trump's announcement, when the market priced a more than 13% likelihood of the rebates being paid out."
"On ABC's This Week with George Stephanopoulos on Novmber 9, shortly after the post from Trump, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent admitted he hadn't yet talked to the president about the dividend plan, adding it would require Congress to pass legislation. Bessent also attempted to unpick the form the tariff stimulus would take, perhaps not a check but in relief already signed into law: "The $2,000 dividend could come in lots of forms ... it could be just the tax de"
President Trump posted on Truth Social promising a "dividend" of at least $2,000 per person (excluding high-income individuals), citing rising investment and factory activity. Initial market excitement faded as prediction markets slashed odds: Kalshi prices imply about a 2% chance (down from roughly 13%), and Polymarket odds dropped to about 1% from 50% on November 15. Kalshi's contract tracks notices of $1,000 checks and verified reporting by January 1 rather than completed payouts. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he had not discussed the plan with the president and that Congressional legislation would be required, noting the dividend could take various forms.
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