National Redistricting Expert Declares Democrats Have Clearly Won' the Gerrymandering War': Without a Doubt'

"In the gerrymandering war between Democrats and Republicans heading into the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential election, there is a clear winner right now: The Dems. That's what Jonathan Cervas, a redistricting expert and assistant professor at Carnegie Mellon University, told Mediaite founder Dan Abrams on Abrams' SiriusXM radio program on Wednesday. Who do you think ends up benefiting from the [gerrymandering] efforts nationwide? Abrams asked Cervas. If nothing changes, as [the districts] are right now, Democrats have clearly won this war, Cervas said. Without a doubt."

"Abrams followed up, asking if that is based on an assumption that Texas has to use its 2021 congressional state and legislative maps in next year's midterms, after a federal judge in November blocked the state's efforts to redraw its maps. The judge said there was substantial evidence that the new district lines were racially gerrymandered, and ordered Texas to use its 2021 map. Cervas said that is definitely a key factor, with Texas forced to use its old map, which means they get no additional seats."

Democrats currently hold a clear advantage in gerrymandering outcomes heading into the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential election. Texas was ordered by a federal judge to use its 2021 congressional and legislative maps after a court found substantial evidence of racial gerrymandering, preventing the state from gaining additional seats. California voters approved Prop 50, which empowers the Democratic-controlled legislature to redraw congressional districts, leading to a fresh map expected to add five Democratic seats. Some states like Missouri and Utah may yield modest Republican or Democratic shifts, but overall Republican gains appear limited. Experts caution that the conflict is not over and outcomes could change.

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