""Net immigration (the number of people who migrate to the United States minus the number who leave) is projected to become an increasingly important source of population growth in the coming years, as declining fertility rates cause the annual number of deaths to exceed the annual number of births starting in 2030," the CBO writes. "Without immigration, the population would begin to shrink in 2030.""
"This rapid acceleration, the CBO said, is driven by the "double squeeze" of declining fertility and an aging populace, combined with recent policy shifts on immigration. CBO analysts have drastically lowered their expectations for the total fertiility rate, now projecting it to settle at just 1.53 births per woman - well below the 2.1 "replacement rate" needed for a stable population. At the same time, the massive "Baby Boomer" generation is reaching ages with higher mortality rates, causing annual deaths to climb."
"The shift is striking not only for what it says about America's rapidly aging society, but also for how soon it is expected to arrive. Just a year ago, many demographic forecasts-including the CBO's own forecast -placed this crossover well into the late 2030s or even the 2040s. The updated outlook from CBO moves the timeline forward by nearly a decade."
Annual deaths are projected to exceed annual births in the United States beginning in 2030, ending natural population growth. Net immigration will become the primary source of population increase, and without immigration the U.S. population would begin to shrink that year. Declining fertility is expected to settle at about 1.53 births per woman, well below the 2.1 replacement rate. An aging Baby Boomer cohort is moving into higher-mortality ages, driving deaths upward. Recent immigration policy shifts and faster-than-expected fertility declines have moved the crossover forward by nearly a decade, straining economic and social systems reliant on natural growth.
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