In 2024, immigration enforcement became a central campaign focus, with supporters rallying around mass-deportation messaging. The crackdown was presented as a solution to economic and social problems, including labor markets and housing. Evidence from the 1920s shows that intense immigration restrictions tied to quotas reduced economic mobility for native-born white men, with sons less likely to reach higher-status jobs than their fathers in counties more exposed to quotas. Recent analysis using labor market data and ICE arrest patterns found that removing immigrants from work corresponded with job losses for native-born workers. Concerns also grew that enforcement contributes to labor shortages in sectors such as construction.
"Trump framed a crackdown on immigration as a panacea for the country's most pressing issues: fixing everything from the economy and the labor market to housing. But if history is any lesson, his hardline approach could backfire. A new report from the libertarian think tank Cato Institute found that immigration quotas could actually lead to the worsening of economic outcomes for native-born Americans for generations, undercutting the promise of prosperity Trump has touted."
"Researchers examined data from the 1920s, when the U.S. enacted one of the most intense immigration crackdowns in history prior to the ones the country has experienced under Trump's two terms. The researchers found a direct link between immigration quotas and the economic mobility of U.S.-born white men, who made up the lion's share of the labor market at the time. In U.S. counties more exposed to the quotas, sons were significantly less likely to find a higher-status job than their fathers."
"As the Trump administration carries out ICE operations nationwide, the finding adds to a growing body of evidence that immigration crackdowns may fall short of the president's "America First" promises. Another recent study from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) crunched national labor market and ICE arrests data from the past year and found that for every six immigrants removed from the workforce, one native-born worker lost their job when comparing labor effects in areas with large upticks in ICE arrests to places with fewer arrests."
"There are growing concerns that removing immigrants from the workforce is adding to critical worker shortages in industries like construction. A recent National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) policy brief found a notable drop in the labor-force"
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