"Six suspected insiders made $1.2M betting on a US strike on Iran. The data firm pointed to bets placed in six accounts on the prediction platform Polymarket, which enables people to wager anonymously using crypto on practically anything. Most of these accounts were funded in the final twenty-four hours before the bombing began, and they hadn't placed bets on any other events, the firm pointed out. The biggest winner staked $60,812.42 and won $499,863.81."
"Since December, Polymarket has been taking bets on whether the U.S. would strike Iran by a certain date: the 'suspected insiders' identified by Bubbelmaps had predicted that it would happen by February 28th. Not surprisingly, these revelations stirred controversy, especially after it emerged that another Polymarket account, pseudonymously named Magamyman, had placed even bigger bets on a U.S. strike and on whether Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would no longer be Supreme Leader at the end of March."
On February 28th, shortly after President Trump authorized Operation Epic Fury against Iran, six anonymous accounts on the cryptocurrency-based prediction platform Polymarket placed bets predicting a U.S. strike by that date, collectively winning $1.2 million. Data firm Bubblemaps identified these accounts as suspicious, noting they were funded in the final twenty-four hours before the bombing and had placed no other bets. The largest single account wagered $60,812.42 and won $499,863.81. Additional scrutiny fell on another account called Magamyman, which placed even larger bets on the strike and on the death of Ayatollah Khamenei. These revelations sparked controversy regarding potential insider trading, with critics arguing that individuals with advance knowledge of military operations profited from war.
#insider-trading #prediction-markets #cryptocurrency-betting #military-operations #regulatory-reform
Read at The New Yorker
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