Everything everywhere all at once: How Zohran Mamdani campaigned both online and with a ground game

"Accounts of Zohran Mamdani's campaign for New York City mayor have highlighted both his online presence and his ground game. Mamdani won the general election with 50.4% of the vote, a larger share than was predicted by most polls, and his get-out-the-vote campaign has received some of the credit. Mamdani claims that his campaign had over 100,000 volunteers knocking on doors across New York City."

"This focus on on-the-ground mobilization stands out given the increasing attention devoted to online campaigning over the past 15 years. Particularly during that time period, online platforms have been a major focus of political campaigns and campaign research. Targeted advertising and new media strategies are increasingly viewed as central to campaign success. So is coverage of the campaign by legacy and social media more generally."

"Moreover, solid empirical evidence of the effectiveness of door-to-door canvassing is limited. Recent work finds very few effects of in-person canvassing, except in very specific circumstances. One recent paper suggests that door-to-door canvassing by the candidate can make a difference to election outcomes. But in a race in New York City, it is not likely that Mamdani himself was able to reach enough voters to make a difference."

Zohran Mamdani won the New York City mayoral race with 50.4% of the vote, exceeding most poll predictions. The campaign claims over 100,000 volunteers conducting door-to-door canvassing and credits its get-out-the-vote ground operation. Over the past 15 years, political campaigns have increasingly emphasized online platforms, targeted advertising, and media coverage. Empirical evidence for the effectiveness of in-person canvassing is limited, with few measured effects except in specific circumstances. Candidate-led canvassing can sometimes influence outcomes, but a single candidate rarely reaches enough voters in a large city to account for major shifts. Hybrid campaign strategies and opposing campaigns obscure causal attribution.

Read at The Conversation