"Yeah, there's been a lot going on. You know, we mentioned, of course, that Texas ninth special election that happened on Saturday, right? That did not happen in isolation. That did not happen in isolation. Again, Republicans have been hoping to squeeze out more Republican seats from that state with the redistricting efforts, right? These are the types of numbers that should really worry Republicans, replied Enten, who continued:"
"Okay, Republicans' margins in Texas: [Donald] Trump won it by 14 points. But look at the generic ballot, the generic House ballot. Now we're talking about a Republican advantage of just one, two points. That was a big influence in terms of what happened in Texas 9. Yeah, they got a good candidate, but it was also the environment has shifted so much to the left, right? This looks a whole heck of a lot like what we saw in 2018."
Democrats’ chances for a large midterm victory have increased, aided by recent gains in Texas and stronger performance in blue states such as New York and California. Democratic majorities are concentrated in states like New York, shrinking Republican House representation. A recent Texas 9 special election occurred amid broader shifts rather than in isolation. Redistricting efforts had aimed to produce more Republican seats, but the generic House ballot has narrowed from Trump’s 14-point Texas margin to roughly a one- to two-point Republican advantage. The political environment has shifted leftward, echoing 2018 patterns and enabling potential seat gains in big states, including Texas.
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