Tropical Storm Oscar, initially a Category 1 hurricane, caused significant damage in Cuba, resulting in at least six deaths and extensive flooding in low-lying areas. As the smallest hurricane on record, its wind field spanned only about 6 miles. Despite the severity, forecasting models failed to predict Oscar's formation as a hurricane ahead of its landfall, marking a notable oversight in hurricane forecasting.
Hurricane specialist Michael Lowry remarked on the 'colossal failure' of hurricane forecasts for Storm Oscar, noting that not one model suggested it might develop further prior to reaching the Bahamas. This situation illustrates the unpredictability of storm systems and highlights the challenges meteorologists face in anticipating developments, especially with small but impactful storms.
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