In 2024, homicide rates across the U.S. saw a significant decline of at least 14%, according to AH Datalytics and the Council on Criminal Justice. Despite fewer police officers post-COVID-19, the trend shows remarkable decrease since the violent surge of 2020 and 2021. Many cities, like Detroit, report their lowest homicide numbers in decades. Analysts, however, emphasize that while policing impacts crime rates, the reasons for the declines are complex and not solely dependent on law enforcement strategies, with the COVID-19 pandemic identified as a critical factor in these changes.
"They're not drinking from a fire hose," he says. City officials around the country often point to policing as a key component of why crime falls."
"You think about a really large ship – it doesn't turn fast. These things don't change fast," he says.
"We're seeing really not just declines, but large declines and large across-the-board declines. I mean, it’s everywhere," Asher says.
Researchers caution that no one thing causes violence to rise or fall, but the COVID-19 pandemic has been identified as a primary driver of the decline.
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