"Prediction market Kalshi has taken another step into sports-linked trading. The New York company recently self-certified a new set of event contracts with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, tied to professional sports draft lottery odds, testing how far federally regulated prediction markets can go. Earlier this month, Kalshi filed paperwork with the CFTC to list contracts built around the question: Will a specific team win its league's draft lottery?"
"Under Chairman Michael S. Selig, the agency has moved away from the more restrictive posture it took in 2024. In recent weeks, the commission withdrew a proposed rule that would have imposed sweeping limits, and potentially outright bans, on event contracts involving sports and politics. In a formal statement, Selig said the earlier proposal "reflected the prior administration's frolic into merit regulation with an outright prohibition on political contracts," and made clear he wants a different approach."
Kalshi self-certified event contracts tied to professional sports draft lottery odds with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to expand federally regulated prediction markets. The contracts ask whether a specific team will win its league's draft lottery and include offerings based on pre-draw odds for the eventual winner. The CFTC self-certification pathway lets designated contract markets roll out event contracts without formal signoff, and trading can begin unless the commission objects during the review window. Kalshi previously used the pathway earlier in 2025 for sports markets including college basketball. The filings arrive amid a CFTC shift under Chairman Michael S. Selig toward new rulemaking that seeks responsible innovation under the Commodity Exchange Act.
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