A Group of 5 conference champion is expected to appear among the final top-12 College Football Playoff contenders. Boise State is the only Group of 5 team in the preseason AP Top 25 at No. 25 and holds the highest G5 playoff probability at 25% per ESPN Analytics. Boise State coach Spencer Danielson used last season's success to motivate players after preseason skepticism. Any team that can win its conference is a playoff contender because the five highest-ranked conference winners automatically qualify for the 12-team field, leaving seven at-large berths. Past lessons emphasize dominating weak schedules to make a case for selection.
The Broncos have the highest chance to reach the playoff (25%) of any G5 team, according to ESPN Analytics. When the preseason poll was released, Boise State coach Spencer Danielson met with his players and reminded them that in 2024 they weren't ranked at all -- but went on to win the Mountain West Conference and earn a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.
Boise State is hardly the only team starting the season on the bubble. Any team that has a chance to win its league is also a playoff contender because the five highest-ranked conference winners are guaranteed spots in the 12-team field. And seven at-large spots are up for grabs. Below is a look at teams on the preseason bubble, but we'll start with playoff lessons from last season.
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