"Americans now have the least confidence in finding a new job since at least 2013, a period also known as the depths of the "jobless recovery" following the Great Recession. According to the latest August 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations from the New York Federal Reserve, the perceived probability of securing a new job in case of job loss has dropped to 44.9%."
"The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a nonpartisan think tank, explained the Great Recession created an unusually large and long-lasting "output gap," between actual and potential GDP, which manifested in substantial excess unemployment and underemployment. It took until 2017 for this output gap to close, according to the Congressional Budget Office's August 2018 Economic and Budget Outlook estimates—and even then the economy did not ever resume its potential GDP track from before the crash."
Perceived probability of securing a new job after job loss fell to 44.9% in August 2025, the lowest reading since the New York Fed series began in June 2013. The decline was broad-based across age, education, and income groups and was most pronounced for those with at most a high school education. The phrase "jobless recovery" describes the slow labor-market rebound after the 2008 Great Recession, when unemployment peaked above 10% and payrolls were slowly restored. The jobs deficit persisted for years, with the economy regaining large numbers of lost positions only gradually and labor-market slack remaining elevated into the mid-2010s.
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