In April, the US economy added 177,000 jobs, surpassing the economists' forecast of 138,000, while unemployment remained at 4.2%. This job growth occurs amidst fears of a recession following the first contraction of the gross domestic product in three years. Some economists suggest that less aggressive fiscal policies could avert a downturn. Key concerns include deteriorating job security and consumer sentiment. The impact of recent tariffs announced by President Trump is uncertain and may take years to materialize in terms of job market effects, suggesting a complex economic landscape ahead.
We're on a path toward a recession, but it is clear what can get us off that path, and that would be less aggressive policies.
The deterioration in job security we are seeing is particularly worrisome and the drop in consumer attitudes is in recession territory.
This data is too soon to show the full impacts of the tariffs; it could be a long time before those impacts appear.
Even in the optimistic scenario in which tariffs have the effect of bringing production of some goods back to America, those gains are likely years away.
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