The math for Senate control is simple: Democrats hold a 51-49 majority, but risks loom with potential Republican flips in key states like West Virginia.
Polls show Jon Tester trailing Tim Sheehy in Montana by seven points, complicating Democrats' hopes for maintaining Senate majority, with Tester last leading in mid-August.
Republicans poised to gain ground in states like Montana and face little threat in Texas and Florida, indicating challenges for Democrats in retaining Senate control.
Democrats' potential paths to retaining Senate control without Montana require flipping red states, particularly tough as polls show incumbents leading strongly in Texas and Florida.
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