The article explores the predictive abilities of AI models like ChatGPT in the context of macroeconomic variables, specifically inflation and unemployment. By integrating significant geopolitical events, such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the authors assess how these narratives impact the model's forecasts. The methodology employed uses various prompts to gauge prediction accuracy in comparison to expert insights offered by economists like Jerome Powell. Results highlight the challenges and limitations faced by AI in delivering realistic economic projections under narrative-driven contexts.
On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, which initiated modifications in inflation forecasts, as ChatGPT was prompted to anticipate resulting economic impacts.
The experiment involved using ChatGPT to predict macroeconomic outcomes, significantly influenced by geopolitical events like the invasion of Ukraine, showcasing AI's narrative limitations.
Chairman Powell's narrative delivers critical insights into the economic landscape, illustrating how real-world events, such as the Ukraine invasion, direct the flow of monetary policy.
Our methodology highlights the disparities in predictive power between AI-generated narratives and those framed by economic experts, marking a step towards evaluating AI's narrative prediction abilities.
#artificial-intelligence #macroeconomics #inflation-prediction #geopolitical-events #economic-forecasting
Collection
[
|
...
]