The article discusses the precarious state of the U.S. economy under Trump's presidency, highlighting a reversal from previous economic strengths. Trump's aggressive trade war tactics, particularly reciprocal tariffs, have initiated a wave of uncertainty, leading to declining stock market performance and increased anxiety among investors. The S&P 500 index scored its worst quarterly performance in years, and the dollar's safe haven status is diminishing, pushing investors towards gold. With heightened recession forecasts rising from 15% to 40%, concerns grow over the potential ripple effects on North America and the EU.
The stock market, which Trump cites when it rises as a testament to his economic success, has only been going down lately.
Investors are fleeing risky assets in search of safe havens, and even the dollar has ceased to function as such.
Economists assume that the protectionist aggression of its powerful neighbor will push Mexico and Canada into recession.
I'm raising my odds that a recession will begin sometime this year to 40%, up from 15% at the start of the year.
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