Recent analysis challenges the Democratic belief that high voter turnout is the pathway to victory in presidential elections. Eric Levitz's discussion with influential data scientist David Shor reveals that if all registered voters had participated, Donald Trump would have won the popular vote by a larger margin. The analysis highlights the disengagement of moderate and conservative Democrats, who, frustrated with the party's direction and issues like the cost of living, contributed to lower turnout. This underscores a need for a reevaluation of campaign strategies to engage these crucial voters.
The reality is if all registered voters had turned out, then Donald Trump would've won the popular vote by 5 points instead of 1.7 points.
Data analysis shows that parties losing ground with swing voters see worse turnout due to moderate and conservative Democrats staying home, despite their frustrations.
Democrats' strategy of mobilizing an energized base fails to account for a significant number of moderate Democrats dissatisfied with the party.
Shor's analyses reveal a concerning trend where issues like cost of living alienated traditional Democratic voters, pushing them to the sidelines.
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