The Supreme Court Could Still Tilt the Midterms to the GOP

"Ever since SCOTUS unexpectedly ordered a reargument of a case (Louisiana v. Callais) challenging a Louisiana law creating a second majority-Black congressional district, legal beagles have been reasonably sure that the Court is on the brink of concluding that race-based criteria for ensuring minority representation under the VRA are a vestige of the distant past and may now run afoul of the 14th Amendment's equal-protection principles."

"Based on the tone of oral arguments and the general drift of the Court's voting-rights jurisprudence, a move against Section Two of the VRA (which allows private individuals to challenge election decisions, particularly redistricting, that threaten minority voting power) seems very likely. But two big questions remain: (1) Will the Court kill Section Two or simply make it harder for Section Two lawsuits to succeed? (2) Will the decision come down in time to affect the 2026 midterms?"

"If the Court finishes the job of gutting the VRA that it began in the landmark 2013 decision of (eliminating a powerful preclearance requirement for potentially discriminatory election changes), a door could open to widespread partisan gerrymandering and significantly reduce minority representation in Congress and state legislatures."

The Supreme Court's conservative majority appears poised to significantly weaken the Voting Rights Act of 1965 through the Louisiana v. Callais case. The Court has ordered reargument on whether race-based criteria for ensuring minority representation violate the 14th Amendment's equal-protection principles. Legal experts anticipate the Court will either eliminate or substantially restrict Section Two of the VRA, which allows challenges to redistricting that threatens minority voting power. The decision could arrive before the 2026 midterms, potentially enabling a new wave of partisan gerrymandering. If the Court completes its dismantling of the VRA begun in 2013, it would significantly reduce Black representation in Congress and state legislatures.

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