The polls currently show Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald J. Trump effectively tied. Close polls do not necessarily mean there will be a close result.
You could get a popular vote that is five points apart, which is, by today's standards, a landslide a word no one has used this year.
Since 1998, election polls in presidential, House, Senate and governor's races have diverged from the final vote tally by an average of six percentage points.
If the polls are underestimating Ms. Harris by 4.8 points in each of the seven swing states, she would win every one of them.
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