"I saw this huge jump in Harris's support on July 31st, but didn't put it together with Trump's appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists convention that day. That event... marked the decisive turning point in the campaign."
"Miller's election forecast is based not on polls, but on the prices for both candidates posted on the PredictIt betting site. He regards the PredictIt odds as far more reliable than polls..."
"The Miller model posits first that the PredictIt odds closely reflect popular vote percentages...historically, the popular voting shares closely track the portion of the 538 electoral votes each contender receives."
"Miller shows that historically, the popular voting shares closely track the portion of the 538 electoral votes...that relationship, he found, has been extremely stable over every race since 1960."
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