In a surprising turn of events, Justin Trudeau's Liberal party is projected to secure a majority government under new Prime Minister Mark Carney, according to recent polling. After experiencing a dramatic slump in January, which saw Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre maintain a commanding lead, the Liberals' fortunes have shifted drastically, reflecting unforeseen political dynamics, including U.S. influences. Philippe Fournier's analysis indicates the Liberals now have a 55% chance of majority victory, a stark contrast from earlier odds of less than 1% just months ago, presenting a rare historical development in Canadian politics.
For more than a year and a half, the Conservatives' win probabilities stood at more than 99%. As recently as January, for example, the most sympathetic polling firm had Trudeau's party trailing the Conservatives by 20 points.
But fresh polling released by three companies this week shows a stunning reversal of fortunes for the party: newly minted prime minister Mark Carney's Liberals are projected to secure a majority government.
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