Trump is less of a surprise this time but will be a test. The international system has baked in that Trump is not an instinctive supporter of alliances, that he will be inconsistent. Allies and adversaries alike are going to know that nothing is free; everything is a negotiation.
Trump, Biden officials ruefully note in private, will inherit a strong hand. He will take the helm of a healthy economy and will become the first U.S. president in decades to assume office without a large-scale military deployment in an overseas war zone.
His very presence behind the Resolute desk feels destined to destabilize it further. Trump has offered mysterious plans to bring quick ends to the wars raging in Ukraine and the Middle East.
The region seems on the doorstep of its biggest transformation in generations. Trump is poised to push an 'America First' foreign policy - inward-looking and transactional - at a moment when a lack of superpower leadership could embolden China.
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