""Trump is the guy. He makes the market possible. He's so unpredictable." - Kwok Ping Tsang, Virginia Tech economist."
""When a wagering event on Polymarket asked whether Trump was likely to send troops into Iran, nearly 100,000 bets were placed on April 8, leading to the biggest trading day of the year up to then.""
""People are also betting 'Yes' or 'No' on all kinds of other things - the price of gold, the winner of 'Survivor,' even the weather.""
Prediction markets thrive on Donald Trump's unpredictability, leading to increased betting on his potential actions and statements. Companies like Polymarket and Kalshi benefit from this trend, with Trump Jr. having stakes in some. A recent event on Polymarket saw nearly 100,000 bets on whether Trump would send troops to Iran. The betting landscape includes various political questions, and while sports wagers dominate, political betting remains significant. Despite bipartisan criticism regarding insider trading, the regulatory environment remains lenient.
Read at Fortune
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