A recent YouGov poll indicates that if an election were held today, the populist Reform Party, led by Nigel Farage, would secure 271 seats, surpassing Labour's projected 178 seats. This marks a significant transformation in UK politics, as it highlights the waning power of Labour, which previously enjoyed a decisive victory. The poll suggests potential shifts in policy priorities, particularly regarding social issues such as LGBTQ+ rights, given Reform's controversial stance on various subjects. The Liberal Democrats are projected to remain in third place with gains, while the Conservative Party will see a dramatic reduction in seats.
If an election were held tomorrow, the central projection from our MRP estimates that Labour would not only lose their majority, falling to 178 seats, but in doing so become second party by some distance in a hung parliament in which Reform UK would be the largest force.
According to our data and models, Nigel Farage's party would come out of an election with 271 seats, an enormous improvement on their 2024 total of five, placing the party close to government.
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