Keir Starmer's goal to restore the NHS's 18-week waiting time for planned care before the next election appears unattainable, as suggested by the Institute for Fiscal Studies. The NHS has not met the critical 92% referral-to-treatment standard since 2015, and current patient backlogs and increased demand complicate this goal. With over 6 million patients currently waiting for treatment, experts believe that restoring this standard by 2029 will be challenging without substantial changes to patient prioritization and demand management. An increase in planned care treatment by nearly 5% annually is essential to even approach the target, far beyond recent levels of performance.
The NHS has not met the longstanding 92% referral to treatment target since September 2015, raising doubts about the possibility of restoring this standard by 2029.
Achieving the 18-week target within this parliament will be challenging, as reversing nearly a decade of worsening performance in five years is highly unlikely.
To fulfill Starmer's pledge, the NHS would need to not only increase the number of patients treated but also significantly reduce demand.
The service must increase planned care by 4.9% yearly until 2029 to meet the 92% target, a target well above the recent treatment rise of 2.4%.
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