Reeves expected to reveal cut in growth forecasts for next five years in budget

"The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has reportedly downgraded its forecast for UK growth in each year to 2030-31 as part of a review undertaken before the budget that will argue a lack of investment under Tory administrations undermined the UK's potential economic expansion. The chancellor's efforts to increase growth will be unable to offset annual downgrades by the OBR, Sky News reported, undermining Labour's chances at the next election in 2029."

"Reeves has already acknowledged publicly that growth forecasts will be hit due to the OBR's revision of its assumptions about productivity, which measures the output of a worker for each hour. It was understood that a downgrade was likely once it was agreed by senior executives at the independent forecaster including its chair, Richard Hughes that previous growth rates were overly optimistic. A downgrade could slice 10bn to 20bn from future tax receipts each year."

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has downgraded UK growth forecasts for each year to 2030-31 after revising productivity assumptions. Senior executives, including the OBR chair Richard Hughes, agreed previous growth rates were overly optimistic. The downgrades are expected to cut 10bn to 20bn from future tax receipts annually and could offset the chancellor's measures to boost output. The Treasury highlighted a 120bn increase in infrastructure investment versus the previous government and measures to cut red tape, introduce a new planning bill and secure trade deals. A potential levy on properties over 2m could raise 400m–450m.

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