Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver her first full autumn budget on 26 November and the OBR has been commissioned to produce updated forecasts. Reeves has ten weeks to prepare tax and spending measures amid high borrowing costs, persistent inflation and a weak growth outlook. Reeves and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer have pledged not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT on working people. Reeves is exploring higher levies on wealthier taxpayers, including capital gains, inheritance tax and property charges, while a wealth tax appears privately ruled out. Business leaders warn large tax rises could dampen growth and global risks increase uncertainty.
Reeves and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer have repeatedly pledged not to raise taxes on "working people" by increasing income tax, national insurance or VAT. However, she is exploring options to raise more from wealthier taxpayers, including changes to capital gains tax, inheritance tax and property levies. Some left-wing Labour MPs and campaigners have pressed her to introduce a wealth tax, but Treasury insiders suggest Reeves has privately ruled it out.
Business leaders have warned that significant tax rises in November would add to the challenges facing households and companies, potentially dampening growth. The timing of the budget means Reeves will have the party's autumn conference in Liverpool, beginning in late September, to shape the political narrative. Treasury officials also hope that updated International Monetary Fund forecasts, due at its annual meeting in mid-October, could provide more positive news for the chancellor.
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